Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion

Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion

 

Vincent C. Müller & Nick Bostrom

University of Oxford 

2014

 

 

Abstract

“There is, in some quarters, concern about high–level machine intelligence and superintelligent AI coming up in a few decades, bringing with it significant risks for humanity. In other quarters, these issues are ignored or considered science fiction. We wanted to clarify what the distribution of opinions actually is, what probability the best experts currently assign to high–level machine intelligence coming up within a particular time–frame, which risks they see with that development, and how fast they see these developing. We thus designed a brief questionnaire and distributed it to four groups of experts in 2012/2013. The median estimate of respondents was for a one in two chance that highlevel machine intelligence will be developed around 2040-2050, rising to a nine in ten chance by 2075. Experts expect that systems will move on to superintelligence in less than 30 years thereafter. They estimate the chance is about one in three that this development turns out to be ‘bad’ or ‘extremely bad’ for humanity.”

 

You can reach the article from the link below:

https://nickbostrom.com/papers/survey.pdf


For Citation :

Selin Cetin
"Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion"
Hukuk & Robotik, Saturday January 13th, 2018
https://robotic.legal/en/yapay-zekanin-gelecekteki-ilerlemesi-uzman-gorusune-iliskin-bir-arastirma/- 17/05/2021