Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion

Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion


Vincent C. Müller & Nick Bostrom

University of Oxford 





“There is, in some quarters, concern about high–level machine intelligence and superintelligent AI coming up in a few decades, bringing with it significant risks for humanity. In other quarters, these issues are ignored or considered science fiction. We wanted to clarify what the distribution of opinions actually is, what probability the best experts currently assign to high–level machine intelligence coming up within a particular time–frame, which risks they see with that development, and how fast they see these developing. We thus designed a brief questionnaire and distributed it to four groups of experts in 2012/2013. The median estimate of respondents was for a one in two chance that highlevel machine intelligence will be developed around 2040-2050, rising to a nine in ten chance by 2075. Experts expect that systems will move on to superintelligence in less than 30 years thereafter. They estimate the chance is about one in three that this development turns out to be ‘bad’ or ‘extremely bad’ for humanity.”


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For Citation :

Selin Cetin
"Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion"
Hukuk & Robotik, Saturday January 13th, 2018
https://robotic.legal/en/yapay-zekanin-gelecekteki-ilerlemesi-uzman-gorusune-iliskin-bir-arastirma/- 21/04/2021


2012 yılında Japonca eğitimim sonrasında hukuk fakültesine başladı. Jürging-Örkün-Putzar Rechtsanwalte (Almanya), Güler Hukuk Bürosu ve Ünsal & Gündüz Attorneys at Law' da staj yaptı. Japon dili sertifikası aldı. Ayrıca arabuluculuk- tahkim ve ceza hukuku gibi alanlarda sertifika programlarına katıldı.Bunların akabinde Bilişim ve Teknoloji Hukuku alanında yüksek lisans yapmaya başladı. Köksal & Partners hukuk bürosunda avukat olarak çalışmakta. Büyük bir merakla, robotlar, yapay zeka ve onların hukuksal durumları ve problemler ile ilgili çalışmalar yürütmekte. She studied law following herJapanese education on 2012. She fulfilled her internships in Jurging-Orkun-Putzar Rechtsanwalte(Germany), Guler Law Office and Unsal&Gunduz Attorney at Law . Also she has certificate of Japanese language and she has mediation and arbitration certificates and criminal law certificates from law workshops. Afterwards, she started the master program on information and technology law, at Istanbul Bilgi University. She works as a lawyer at Koksal & Partners law office. Her goal and ambition is the working in the field of Robotics, AI and their legal statutes and problems and exploring the relevant necessities where no women has ever gone before... Yazarın diğer yazıları için ayrıca bakınız: For further works of the author: https://bilgi.academia.edu/Selin%C3%87etin https://siberbulten.com/author/selin-cetin/

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